Why Is Gold So High Right Now?
What are the reasons behind the high gold costs we are witnessing? Why do certain assets rise to astonishing highs when the basics remain low? In the past twelve months gold has risen to $1,007 per ounce, which is its highest point between March, 2008 and now. Gold has seen a 12% increase in the intervening months.
How has this happened? It certainly hasn’t been the fundamentals, which is what you would think would cause it. The demand for gold jewelry has dropped 22% since 2008 according to the World Gold Council, and the use of gold has dropped 21% in industrial processes. The only part of the gold market that has flourished was the speculation, which saw an increase of 46% earlier in the year.
In addition, gold is thought to be a way to fight inflation, which is why a lot of people are drawn to this commodity. However, when looking at specific data published by the Department of Labor, the Gold Consumer Price Index dropped by 2.1% in twelve months. This indicates that inflation has not occurred. You might be wondering what people are worried about then.
Because the Federal balance sheet is getting larger, the currency it is based on is losing it’s value. Deflation will only cause our currency to further lose it’s value, and inflation is not a pleasant option; it appears that either way things go, gold will benefit.
Another factor in support of gold is how low the current US interest rates are. The method by which banks charge other banks for loans, known as the London interbank dollar rate, has fallen 4.8% since October of last year to an unprecedented 0.314%. Because you do not earn interest by having gold, you have something known as an opportunity cost which you do not have with any other form of investment, such as bonds. However, given the current value of the dollar, the opportunity cost of having gold as opposed to bonds is insignificant.
All signs point to financial speculation being behind the surge in gold prices and nothing to do with the fundamentals. Gold prices are high and it is impossible to predict what will happen from here.
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